Virginia vs Florida State 11/19/2011

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Florida State is a heavy favorite winning 88% of simulations over Virginia. EJ Manuel is averaging 246 passing yards and 2.2 TDs per simulation and Devonta Freeman is projected for 57 rushing yards and a 57% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 12% of simulations where Virginia wins, Michael Rocco averages 1.93 TD passes vs 0.8 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.81 TDs to 1.14 interceptions. Perry Jones averages 66 rushing yards and 0.54 rushing TDs when Virginia wins and 57 yards and 0.25 TDs in losses. Florida State has a 44% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 94% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is FLAST -17

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